Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Did Global Warming Cause Katrina?

According to some the answer is yes:

Here are the relevant questions and the right answers.

Q1. Did global warming cause Katrina or significantly affect its intensity? (Yes.)
Q2. Can we detect any impact on U.S. hurricane damage? (No.)
Q3. Should we judge global warming's impact on hurricanes as negligible? (No.)

Answers to Q1 and Q2 seem to contradict, and that is why the experts answer Q1 incorrectly as "No". They are afraid that if they said "yes" (the correct answer) to Q1 we would think the answer to Q2 is "yes", which it is not.

The basic idea is this. Weather is chaotic, which means a small change at one point in time has a progressively larger effect on all the particulars of weather as time goes on. This is often called the "butterfly effect." A butterfly flaps its wings and causes a tornado at some later date. If global warming has had even 1/5 of its theoretical effect, that still amounts to the energy of 1 hurricane a year world wide. That's an unthinkably bigger disturbance to global weather than a butterfly, and there can be no doubt that over the last few decades such a large continuing disturbance to the global weather system has rearranged all the particulars.
Real scientists say no:

A current argument suggests that as climate change causes the seas to warm the oceans store more energy that can be harnessed by the wind to form tropical cyclones.

But this is too simplistic, says (Dr John McBride, a principal research scientist at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology).

"There are other conditions that are necessary to be able to tap that energy source, such as the structure of the wind systems," he says.

McBride says there's no proof that cyclones have become more common or will become more frequent in the future, or that they'll take place in more parts of the world.

"Worldwide, there's really no evidence for any change," he says.
Again objective proof that the effects of 'climate change' are yet to be fully understood and more importantly, placed in its historical context.

It seems to me to 'global warming-global cooling-climate change' chicken littles are simply children who grow afraid of the spiders who have always been in the garden because they've seen one through a magnifying glass which looks especially fierce.

So, board up the windows, make sure all loose objects are secured and enjoy a:

2 oz light rum
2 oz dark rum
2 oz passion fruit juice
1 oz orange juice
1/2 oz fresh lime juice
1 tbsp simple syrup
1 tbsp grenadine
Garnish: orange slice and cherry

Shake all the ingredients in a cocktail shaker with ice and strain into a hurricane glass. Garnish with a cherry and an orange slice.
-- Nora

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